Global warming

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Offline Alef

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« on: October 08, 2019, 06:51:15 PM »
Well, from scientic point of view everything is clear. It is and is man made. The rest is conspiracy theories.

https://asdam.livejournal.com/247140.html

Greta Turnberg is right exept when she sayes "you stolen my childhood" what is not the case. What could be explained by syndrome. She is very emotional. And society realy aren't so interested in real science with boring graphics.

One of the problem is a chaotic behavior of climate. We realy don't know what will happen, and when bad things would start to happen. It's like lavine going to new stable position with some +5 or +15. 

Linkback: https://fractalforums.org/off-topic/29/global-warming/3124/
« Last Edit: December 27, 2019, 03:39:55 PM by Alef »
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Offline Fraktalist

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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2019, 11:07:29 PM »
I'm so sick of this whole thing.
It is obvious that we need to do something.
99.?? % of scientists -those who actually research, study and understand what is happening, looking at the measurement data - agree.
Yet those in charge don't listen because a part of the public don't want to hear about changes to their lifestyle.
And those in charge don't listen, because "muh economy!" & election campaign donations.

So no majority for science.
End of story.

But the issue remains, worsens. 
Emotional reminders every now and then, warnings about superlative predictions, strangely distant.
"if ..°c in ..years, planet dead."

But nothing happens, because no majority for science.

Some care, run around, try to wake up the ignorants. And a few do wake up, but FAR from enough, never reaching the critical treshold.
We reach some sort of equilibrium.
no change with a constant guilty conscience reminder.

And over years people start to get annoyed.
Just shut up. I can't hear it anymore. Nothing ever happens.

Hell, even I myself am fed up with it.
I am so sick of this constant debate against ignorant deniers who aren't interested (or capable) in just looking at the data and facts for themselves.
And then act accordingly.

I just can't take it any longer.


With edward lorenz& butterfly effect in mind, from a fractal perspective the dangers are even more obvious!

Keep shapestacking in the Mandelbrot-Set in mind:
Zooming in is like going along the arrow of time.
previous state + all interactions = next state   ---repeat this formula recursively

If you start to zoom towards a new pattern, there is no way back, future patterns will have that new pattern incorporated.


In climate:
We're knowlingly heading (zooming) towards an area of the big picture with a high probablity of an inhospitable state of planet earth.
We still have the choice to zoom somewhere outside,, choose a new zoom-center, but this will change a lot of what we are used to, changing our comfortable,everyday  lifestyle
And very soon we are no longer able to reach those alternatives, because they zoom out of our field of view.
no longer accessible, the arrow of time has moved on, we're on a new main branch.
unwelcoming and inhospitable.



putting this all together makes me sick.
knowing I have two young boys that will really face the consequences of what is happening now.
inable to really do something. woohoo, online petitions. huge demonstration of +1million.
I've changed my lifestyle (as far as finances allow it).

yet the last 20 years have shown that in reality, this all has little influence.
And to be honest, if I can't change it anymore, I kind of don't want to hear about it all anymore.
Because all it does is to make me feel bad in the little nice now that we have left.
Being aware of a problem becomes irrelevant - even hurtful - if you have zero influence to solve the problem.

I guess and fear that before society can change, we really need to feel serious consequences that really hit humanity where it hurts.
And I hate being on this course, though (along with many others) knowing better and willing to change my own life in any way - as long as we all do together.




sorry for the pessimistic rant.
but I kind of have given up hope and needed to vent.





PS: The one positive thing possible solution that I just can't get out of my mind since a few years is "Biochar" or Terra Preta.
Basically the concept of charring plant-material "waste" and adding that to our soil.
It's is a win-win-win.

-removing Co2 from atmosphere through plant growth
-releasing stored solar energy on demand by burning plants to char
-storing the problematic C of Co² in that char by adding it to our soil for millions of years.
-enriching our increasingly unprodictive soils, creating "Terra Preta" on a large scale

you tackle all the main problems we face today. energy production/storgage, climate change, deteriorating soils and food production.

What am I missing on this?!? Why the hell aren't we doing this, or at least talking about it?!?
« Last Edit: October 08, 2019, 11:23:38 PM by Fraktalist »

Offline 3DickUlus

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« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2019, 02:04:54 AM »
(sarcasm) The Prime Minister of Canada says it's Ok to use 2 jets to fly around the country on the campaign trail because "Our government has purchased carbon offsets for all of the fuel we will use during the campaign". If this is the way leaders think then it's not likely that they will actually do anything about global warming (not that they could anyways)

In a greed based economy (all of them) the only way anything gets done is if there is money to be made. (period end of story) Frightened people spend more money, so lets scare the public as much as possible and the corporations will reap the profits.

It's my understanding that the earth will heat and cool all on it's own. Man's activity may contribute but just by being on the planet and emitting heat we are all contributing. The more I hear the hype the more I believe that this is a natural part of our evolution, we will either live or die and, in Mother Nature's terms, that is just fine because the planet will continue for eons after we are dust and then the planet itself will return to stardust.

oh, and the 1 million + youth who demonstrated about cleaning up the planet ??? there are 2 million + parents that would like them to start with their bedrooms!!!
How many drove to the demonstrations? Apparently, in Vancouver BC a lot of them did because, well... "it rains here a lot and I don't like riding a crowded bus". Where are these youth going to get their new iPhones ??? How will they all get to where they want (not need) to be ??? that's right, they will drive Mom's Mercedes...

Yeah, I'm kinda getting sick of it too, yet, I do my bit, I've had the same water bottles(3) for about 1.5 years and I'm thinking of converting my Lincoln to run on alcohol...

Offline hobold

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« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2019, 02:48:03 PM »
It is "The Emperor's New Clothes" all over again, and Greta is the kid who points out the obvious fact to the grown-ups.

(The earth does cool and heat on its own, but this is the first time (as far back as we can dig up evidence of past climate) that average global temperature is jumping up so quickly and so sharply.)

Who wants to hear that the end of the world is here? Who wants to hear that it is our own fault? Few people want to hear that. Not acknowledging the problem, not acknowledging our power to influence it, bars us from fixing it.

Ah well, evolution will sort it out, and pass the baton on to the next species that wants to take the "Warden of this Biosphere" exam. Of course, defeatism doesn't solve the problem either, but is just another mildly obfuscated excuse for "don't change anything".

Offline 3DickUlus

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« Reply #4 on: October 10, 2019, 02:48:35 AM »
I do what I can, what can you do?
Apathy and ignorance are the enemies, I have had the unpleasant experience of apologizing to my child for the F'd up world that she now has to live in (30 years old and kickin butt), and together we do what we can to make this a better place.

Offline 3DickUlus

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« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2019, 04:55:25 AM »
@Fraktalist re: P.S. That's what we did on the farm when I was a kid.

This system we have vs the natural system of the planet will clash causing turbulence and reach a tipping point where chaos will rule until the systems stabilize... for a time, rinse, repeat... or until it im/explodes allowing the planet to begin the next location on the complex space/time grid.

...hmm sounds like an equation...

Offline Alef

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« Reply #6 on: December 27, 2019, 03:41:41 PM »
Oops, it was a global warming not worming. But it's simmilar.

More conservative people don't like Greta Tunberg. Only liberals like young girl exposing politicians. Traditionalist thinks that she should have be wearing hijab and listen to elders and they are makeing internet parodies on Greta.

My internet anti warming activism seems to worked. It looks that I had convinced a person behind all the western troubles - a Putin. In more monarchic goverments it's like popular elections but you must convince a single man with a power;) But he have power for some real change and his is particulary found of nature. (Portrayed as savior of cranes, tigers and leopards.)
In Russia the most important issue would be a thawing of permafrost. Some 40% of russian territories (but mostly in unpopulated far east) is permafrost. And all the infrastructure and buildings stands on underground ice. In Yakutia some houses sinks down as the result of thawing. In european north there is mostly no permafrost. In Asia permafrost goes south till the Chinese border. In Canada it could be very similar.

Lets convince Vatican that global warming is the most important issue for the future. They have large number of followers.

Offline Alef

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« Reply #7 on: December 27, 2019, 03:42:36 PM »
In 50 year timescale everything would not be important. Exept the results of climate change.

Realy there must be something about it.

Offline Tas_mania

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« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2019, 11:06:13 PM »
I understand exactly what 'you stole my childhood' means. In her mind fighting climate change is more important than having a childhood. She is only 16 after all.

A global treaty on climate change was blocked by China, US, Brazil and Australia. The leaders of the US and Brazil attacked Thunburg.
I'm sure the climate change problem is caused by over-population. How many people is too many? All world leaders are too gutless to say.
Russia is almost empty and so is Australia but we export a lot of coal. Where fossil fuels are burned makes no difference and the UN climate treaties should reflect this fact.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2019, 09:40:10 AM by Tas_mania »

Offline Alef

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« Reply #9 on: December 30, 2019, 03:56:41 PM »
Goverments seems to be convinced only when there happens some climate change created problems like fires in Siberia.  There also is left / right thing. Politically left must believe and right must not.

Greta Tunberg is right. But this message is not apealing to everyone. There were a an article but it can be read just once. Then it asks for subscription:
https://www.ft.com/content/843e1fa4-ea26-11e9-85f4-d00e5018f061?fbclid=IwAR0nAIlmVlD2EF_xfeJYRWKRRcof7URv7Yu1N3tckXVBBIIeXJ3etPF8Fok


Quote
Why middle-aged men hate Greta Thunberg

Being guilt-tripped by a teenager is too close to home for plenty of parents
One of the things that has bothered me for a while is why so many middle-aged men seem to hate Greta Thunberg. Suddenly, thanks to her speech to the United Nations, I know. They are already rowing with their teenage kids and don’t need another one on their case.

It was the furious, accusatory tone in which she chided her audience: “How dare you? You have stolen my dreams and my childhood.” Has not every parent had that clash, albeit more usually about whether they can sleep over at Charlotte’s on a school night?

Let me stress, before going further, that I regard Thunberg as a force for good, even if some of her catastrophising language can be counterproductive. She deserves appreciation, not abuse.

But perhaps because of her remarkable efforts, the young environmental campaigner seems to bring out the worst in a certain cohort, especially on the right.

Some of these people are beginning to demonstrate an almost pathological loathing for someone who is, after all, a child with Asperger’s syndrome trying to save the world.

The vituperation goes beyond the contrarian instinct to recoil from anyone depicted as a modern-day saint. Some joked about her yacht to the US sinking; another compared her appearance to the children in Nazi propaganda. Is this just because she is cutting through or is there something else going on?

Now it is clear. Her speech transported me back to every teenage row with the spawn, especially with the girl, who has a handy line in invective.

Phrases such as “How dare you?” and “you would be evil” are very much swiped from the Bunty guide to teen rage. The only thing missing was a threat to never speak to us again if we don’t reach net zero by 2030.

Happily, it has been a while since my last domestic Thunberging but the tone was definitely familiar. I can hear the next one now: “You have stolen my dreams and ruined my childhood. How dare you stop me going to Glastonbury?”

Of course, the main reason why some rightwingers are so agitated about her is that they do not like her message, but the messenger herself obviously riles them too.

Once you see this through the prism of teenager and parent, however, it all begins to make sense. No one likes being berated by their children, least of all when we suspect they may have a point. Greta is guilt-tripping the adults on a planetary scale.

Hence the instinctive response. This is the kind of stroppy defiance that makes a certain type of adult want to go out and trash the planet, just to show who’s boss.

“How dare you talk to me like that, young lady? I’m jetting off to the US for a steak supper to teach you a lesson. In fact, I may eat a whole cow.

And as for that transatlantic sailing trip, well, you can forget about that. You are GROUNDED. Think of it as my contribution to reducing the family’s carbon footprint.”


Well, but sometimes kids are right and their parents are wrong. I think it's not about teenager it's about society where everyone knows their place and are ruled by grizled village elders. Greta Thunberg upset this rigid hierarchical order. I think she is like an indicator. Alsou the atitudes towards global warming is another indicator, that of common sense.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2020, 03:39:08 PM by Alef »

Offline Alef

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« Reply #10 on: January 02, 2020, 03:44:03 PM »
I think attitudes towards global warming is like of the smokers toward cigarettes.
Doctors don't know the truth. All of this is just lies. I smoke but you have a cought. Until it's too late and lung cancer is beyond therapy.


Well, but it would require some serious gov investitions. Hydro power, nuclear or at least gass instead of coal and gasoline. Not eating meat should not help mutch. Alsou it depends on construction industry:
1. production of cement is one of major CO2 producer.
CaCO2 + Al2O3SiO2 -> Cement + CO2

2. modern glass buildings are mutch like greenhauses. Even in hot Tel aviv they build greenhouse houses and then spend a lot of energy just to cool them down, becouse corporate thinks this is right form of architecture.
Big windows - need a lot of energy to cool down or heat up.

This is made for sun to warm up tomatoes:


This building equaly warms up and then they burn hydrocarbons  to cool it down:



But I think public should be aproached from conservative side, too. Maybe if Vatican would issue a fatwah that mankind must care for God's created world then it could reach more conservative folks.

Offline Dinkydau

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« Reply #11 on: January 03, 2020, 06:59:01 PM »
I'm not convinced that global warming is true and, if it is, that it's a problem. Actually I'm inclined to believe that it's a conspiracy theory itself. An important reason is that I don't notice any strange weather in my own life. I do notice that politicians are planning to implement laws that cost me a lof of money, and money is a good motivation for evil people to design a scam.

I'm open to evidence though. The reason I don't believe global warming is that I have never seen convincing evidence. I have seen video's on youtube and blogposts merely stating that there's a problem, but that doesn't prove anything.

I would love to see a solid argument either for or against global warming and, again, if it's true, why it's a problem. I don't care if it gets a little warmer. Maybe it's a problem for people in warm countries but why would it be a problem for me as well? It could even reduce the need for burning fossil fuel for heating buildings. I want someone who truly understands what's going on to explain exactly why they are convinced, without leaving out important details. I want it to be something like "There's more CO2. We know that because .... It's representative for the entire world because ... The effect of CO2 is global warming because [I expect something with experiments in a lab]. We know experiments with CO2 in the lab are representative for the planet because .... We can rule out other possible causes because... A bad consequence is .... etc.

If something like that exists, I can be convinced.


Edit: I tried to find such explanation with google and couldn't find one. Multiple pages mention some measurements and mention a cause and then don't explain how they've been able to rule out other possible causes, or even causes in the opposite direction (like: maybe increasing temperatures cause CO2). I have this problem every time I try to find the truth about climate. I become barely any wiser this way. As far as I know it could all be false or it could be true. There's no way to tell.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2020, 05:27:41 AM by Dinkydau »

Offline Tas_mania

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« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2020, 09:46:14 PM »
To Dinkydau
I bet you live in the Northern Hemisphere? This week in Australia we have had temperature records smashed across the continent. Also the worst bushfires ever with thousands of homes lost and people killed. Personally, I couldn't care less about your ideas re global warming.

Offline Fraktalist

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« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2020, 02:18:39 PM »
even my 80 year old, hard-core anti environmentalist father just admitted that the average weather in germany has changed significantly.
If you don't notice that, you might try toi "finetune" your sensors.

The increasing heat waves of the last years with temperature records being smashed again and again, dry summers that had our villages 3 little lakes dry out completely(!!) the old people say that never ever happened before.
the winters without snow or even frost (we barely had any frost this year at all. I remember having -10 to -20°C pretty much every year.)

the signs (beyond what's in the news) are all over the place, you just have to look.

and for all those other standard arguments, please have a look at https://grist.org/series/skeptics/
yes, the site is biased.
because they follow the science and official studies.

you don't have to understand every detail of climate research and become an expert. but if you are not an expert, LISTEN TO THE EXPERTS!


An important reason is that I don't notice any strange weather in my own life.


....
Edit: I tried to find such explanation with google and couldn't find one. Multiple pages mention some measurements and mention a cause and then don't explain how they've been able to rule out other possible causes, or even causes in the opposite direction (like: maybe increasing temperatures cause CO2). I have this problem every time I try to find the truth about climate. I become barely any wiser this way. As far as I know it could all be false or it could be true. There's no way to tell.

Offline Dinkydau

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« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2020, 07:25:42 PM »
Thanks for the website. I'm not suddenly completely convinced but I'm taking it seriously.

I agree trusting experts is a good idea. The problem here for me is that the most heard claim about consensus among experts is that 97% of them agree that humans are causing the climate change. Upon closer inspection others have found that the same numbers used to derive the 97% consensus can also be used to conclude that there's only a 1,6% consensus: https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/03/16_not_97_agree.html . Now what should I trust? It's not clear. What is clear to me is that there are a lot of dishonest activists. It's not at all trivial to just trust the experts on a topic that people are being so dishonest about. For some reason we don't have that problem with fractals.


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